> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://mintlify.com/koala73/worldmonitor/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Prediction Service

> Access prediction markets and forecasts from Polymarket

## Overview

The Prediction Service provides APIs for prediction market data from Polymarket. Access real-time probability estimates for geopolitical events, economic indicators, and other world events based on decentralized prediction markets.

**Base Path:** `/api/prediction/v1`

***

## ListPredictionMarkets

Retrieves active prediction markets from Polymarket.

**Endpoint:** `GET /api/prediction/v1/list-prediction-markets`

### Request Parameters

<ParamField query="page_size" type="integer">
  Maximum items per page (1-100).
</ParamField>

<ParamField query="cursor" type="string">
  Cursor for next page.
</ParamField>

<ParamField query="category" type="string">
  Optional category filter (e.g., "Politics", "Crypto", "Sports").
</ParamField>

<ParamField query="query" type="string">
  Optional search query for market titles.
</ParamField>

### Response

<ResponseField name="markets" type="array">
  The list of prediction markets.

  <Expandable title="PredictionMarket">
    <ResponseField name="id" type="string" required>
      Unique market identifier or slug.
    </ResponseField>

    <ResponseField name="title" type="string">
      Market question or title.
    </ResponseField>

    <ResponseField name="yes_price" type="number">
      Current "Yes" price (0.0 to 1.0, representing probability).
    </ResponseField>

    <ResponseField name="volume" type="number">
      Trading volume in USD.
    </ResponseField>

    <ResponseField name="url" type="string">
      URL to the Polymarket market page.
    </ResponseField>

    <ResponseField name="closes_at" type="integer">
      Market close time, as Unix epoch milliseconds. Zero if no expiry.
    </ResponseField>

    <ResponseField name="category" type="string">
      Market category (e.g., "Politics", "Crypto", "Sports").
    </ResponseField>
  </Expandable>
</ResponseField>

<ResponseField name="pagination" type="object">
  Pagination metadata with cursor for next page.
</ResponseField>

### Example Request

```bash theme={null}
curl -X GET "https://api.worldmonitor.com/api/prediction/v1/list-prediction-markets?category=Politics&page_size=10"
```

### Example Response

```json theme={null}
{
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "2024-us-election",
      "title": "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
      "yes_price": 0.52,
      "volume": 18500000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2024-us-election",
      "closes_at": 1730851200000,
      "category": "Politics"
    },
    {
      "id": "ukraine-ceasefire-2024",
      "title": "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine by end of 2024?",
      "yes_price": 0.38,
      "volume": 4200000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-ceasefire-2024",
      "closes_at": 1735689599000,
      "category": "Politics"
    },
    {
      "id": "fed-rate-march-2024",
      "title": "Will the Fed cut rates in March 2024?",
      "yes_price": 0.15,
      "volume": 2800000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-march-2024",
      "closes_at": 1711929599000,
      "category": "Politics"
    }
  ],
  "pagination": {
    "cursor": "eyJvZmZzZXQiOjEwfQ==",
    "has_more": true
  }
}
```

***

## Understanding Prediction Markets

<Info>
  Prediction markets aggregate opinions from traders who put money on the line, providing probability estimates for future events. The "yes\_price" represents the current market-implied probability of the event occurring.
</Info>

### How to Read Probabilities

<CardGroup cols={3}>
  <Card title="High Confidence" icon="arrow-trend-up">
    **0.70 - 1.00**

    Market strongly expects the event to occur.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Uncertain" icon="arrow-trend-down">
    **0.30 - 0.70**

    Market is uncertain, probability could swing either way.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Low Confidence" icon="chart-line-down">
    **0.00 - 0.30**

    Market strongly expects the event will not occur.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

***

## Market Categories

Polymarket offers prediction markets across various categories:

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="Politics">
    Elections, policy decisions, geopolitical events, and political appointments.

    Examples:

    * Presidential elections
    * Congressional outcomes
    * International treaties
    * Political scandals
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Crypto">
    Cryptocurrency prices, blockchain events, and regulatory decisions.

    Examples:

    * Bitcoin price targets
    * Ethereum upgrades
    * Crypto regulation
    * Exchange events
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Sports">
    Major sporting events, championships, and individual achievements.

    Examples:

    * Super Bowl winners
    * World Cup outcomes
    * MVP awards
    * Record-breaking performances
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Pop Culture">
    Entertainment industry events, awards, and celebrity predictions.

    Examples:

    * Oscar winners
    * Box office records
    * Celebrity relationships
    * TV show renewals
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Science & Tech">
    Technological breakthroughs, scientific discoveries, and innovation milestones.

    Examples:

    * AI capabilities
    * Space exploration
    * Medical breakthroughs
    * Product launches
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>

***

## Use Cases

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Risk Assessment" icon="scale-balanced">
    Use market-implied probabilities to assess geopolitical and economic risks for investment decisions.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Sentiment Analysis" icon="chart-mixed">
    Track how market sentiment changes over time as new information emerges.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Event Forecasting" icon="crystal-ball">
    Aggregate wisdom of crowds for more accurate event forecasting than traditional polls.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Research & Analysis" icon="magnifying-glass-chart">
    Compare prediction market probabilities with expert forecasts and historical outcomes.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

***

## Data Source

Prediction market data is sourced from:

* **Polymarket**: The world's largest prediction market platform
* **Real-time updates**: Prices reflect current trading activity
* **Volume data**: Track market liquidity and participant confidence
* **Decentralized**: Markets operate on blockchain infrastructure

<Warning>
  Prediction markets reflect collective trader opinions and should be used as one of many inputs for decision-making. They are not guarantees of future outcomes.
</Warning>