Prediction Service

Access prediction markets and forecasts from Polymarket

Overview

The Prediction Service provides APIs for prediction market data from Polymarket. Access real-time probability estimates for geopolitical events, economic indicators, and other world events based on decentralized prediction markets.

Base Path: /api/prediction/v1

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ListPredictionMarkets

Retrieves active prediction markets from Polymarket.

Endpoint: GET /api/prediction/v1/list-prediction-markets

Request Parameters

page_size · integer

Maximum items per page (1-100).

cursor · string

Cursor for next page.

category · string

Optional category filter (e.g., “Politics”, “Crypto”, “Sports”).

query · string

Optional search query for market titles.

Response

markets · array

The list of prediction markets.

Show PredictionMarket

id · string · required

Unique market identifier or slug.

title · string

Market question or title.

yes_price · number

Current “Yes” price (0.0 to 1.0, representing probability).

volume · number

Trading volume in USD.

url · string

URL to the Polymarket market page.

closes_at · integer

Market close time, as Unix epoch milliseconds. Zero if no expiry.

category · string

Market category (e.g., “Politics”, “Crypto”, “Sports”).

pagination · object

Pagination metadata with cursor for next page.

Example Request

curl -X GET "https://api.worldmonitor.com/api/prediction/v1/list-prediction-markets?category=Politics&page_size=10"

Example Response

{
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "2024-us-election",
      "title": "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
      "yes_price": 0.52,
      "volume": 18500000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2024-us-election",
      "closes_at": 1730851200000,
      "category": "Politics"
    },
    {
      "id": "ukraine-ceasefire-2024",
      "title": "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine by end of 2024?",
      "yes_price": 0.38,
      "volume": 4200000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-ceasefire-2024",
      "closes_at": 1735689599000,
      "category": "Politics"
    },
    {
      "id": "fed-rate-march-2024",
      "title": "Will the Fed cut rates in March 2024?",
      "yes_price": 0.15,
      "volume": 2800000,
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-march-2024",
      "closes_at": 1711929599000,
      "category": "Politics"
    }
  ],
  "pagination": {
    "cursor": "eyJvZmZzZXQiOjEwfQ==",
    "has_more": true
  }
}

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Understanding Prediction Markets

Prediction markets aggregate opinions from traders who put money on the line, providing probability estimates for future events. The “yes_price” represents the current market-implied probability of the event occurring.

How to Read Probabilities

High Confidence

0.70 - 1.00

Market strongly expects the event to occur.

Uncertain

0.30 - 0.70

Market is uncertain, probability could swing either way.

Low Confidence

0.00 - 0.30

Market strongly expects the event will not occur.

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Market Categories

Polymarket offers prediction markets across various categories:

Politics

Elections, policy decisions, geopolitical events, and political appointments.

Examples:

• Presidential elections
• Congressional outcomes
• International treaties
• Political scandals

Crypto

Cryptocurrency prices, blockchain events, and regulatory decisions.

Examples:

• Bitcoin price targets
• Ethereum upgrades
• Crypto regulation
• Exchange events

Sports

Major sporting events, championships, and individual achievements.

Examples:

• Super Bowl winners
• World Cup outcomes
• MVP awards
• Record-breaking performances

Pop Culture

Entertainment industry events, awards, and celebrity predictions.

Examples:

• Oscar winners
• Box office records
• Celebrity relationships
• TV show renewals

Science & Tech

Technological breakthroughs, scientific discoveries, and innovation milestones.

Examples:

• AI capabilities
• Space exploration
• Medical breakthroughs
• Product launches

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Use Cases

Risk Assessment

Use market-implied probabilities to assess geopolitical and economic risks for investment decisions.

Sentiment Analysis

Track how market sentiment changes over time as new information emerges.

Event Forecasting

Aggregate wisdom of crowds for more accurate event forecasting than traditional polls.

Research & Analysis

Compare prediction market probabilities with expert forecasts and historical outcomes.

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Data Source

Prediction market data is sourced from:

• Polymarket: The world’s largest prediction market platform
• Real-time updates: Prices reflect current trading activity
• Volume data: Track market liquidity and participant confidence
• Decentralized: Markets operate on blockchain infrastructure

Prediction markets reflect collective trader opinions and should be used as one of many inputs for decision-making. They are not guarantees of future outcomes.